21-Dec

Folks are paying others to hold their cash?

How many folks have left the markets? Where has all the money gone that was not lost. These past few months have no doubt been a traders market and we are likely to see these conditions exist for some time. What I am suggesting is longer term investors (as in 1 - 3 years) are not likely to see returns in the markets as in previous years. Gains will be difficult unless you have shorter term horizons until the new rules of the game are determined. The knee jerk reactions and lack of follow thru is due to no real buyers (or investors) willing to put large sums of money to work. Many hedge funds have or are going bust. They are definitely not getting new money to put to work in these dire times. Many mutual funds have seen huge redemptions. Some of the most famed investors/traders have said they are completely out of the market. With no new money flowing in, that leaves only the traders that dare to tread these treacherous waters. Short term traders zig and zag, never holding on to anything very long. Traders take short term profits to help reduce their risk exposure over time. Traders are happy to pick up nickels and dimes many times over. It appears most left in the water are those that have not sold and have no intentions to do so and the short term traders. This may indicate a lot of splashing is going to occur. Only when traders get a bit tired and wants to take a break will the waters calm, then they will all go splashing again.In the last few weeks we have seen 30- 90 day US Treasury bills trade at a rate of negative interest. Does this mean people are willing to pay for their cash to be held in US Treasuries. Why would anyone be willing to pay to have someone else hold their stash? Is this is a sign of folks are so uncertain or have such fear about the future, they will pay someone to hold their money forever. Appetite for risk over long periods of time have been diminished but have we gotten to a point where no one wants any risk no matter the price?

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