4-Mar

The DOW rallies 150 points, while financials suffer another down day

Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a five-day losing spell, rising 150 points after a market rally in China spurred by hopes for a new economic stimulus package in that country. All sectors were green for the exception of the bank sector. The S&P 500 Index climbed back above 700. The ADP nonfarm payroll report is calling for a drop of 627,000 in private payrolls. The employment report is this Friday.The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to a 41.6 level. Friday's unemployment index may not be as disappointing as many believe it will. With the very oversold condition of the markets, an unemployment number that is better than expected may provide for good rally. The business activity index was down by 4.4 points from January's rating. It was 40.2. New orders also fell. On the plus side the numbers were higher than they were in November and December. We have been expecting a rally with the markets being so oversold. Today we got it. We need more of them in the coming weeks. The question now is whether or not we have more upside from here. The good thing is the Index Put Call ratio did NOT drop below 1 during today's rally. This indicates that traders did not rush out and embrace this rally too quick. The percent of up volume moving average recently dropped below 40%, it sits at 42% and has room to move up. A reading of over 55% becomes overbought. The McClellan Oscillator has a bullish divergence in play and continues to be oversold. If intraday supports can hold this may lead to more upside as shorts go to cover. The shorts seem to have gotten a bit relaxed as selling rallies have become the norm and no rally has lasted for more than a day or two. The key will Thursday and Friday and holding up thru the employment number.

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