We should all be happy during this rally, right? Well, not so quick. In talking to trader friends and reading incoming emails, I sense a great deal of frustration. Today I would like to share with you two emails, one from a Spiker, another from a Member.
Please post your comments, and later I will return with my own comments.
Best wishes,
Alex
FROM A SPIKER:
Dear Alex,
The group beat indexes during the worst bear market, the group beat Indexes during the final phase of last bottoming on February , However the group has been beaten during last rally.
How can you explain this phenomenon?
To be honest, I have a negative return on my personal trading account since March 9, 2009.
What happened to us?
Have we grown into old and stubborn bears?
Have we got a mental problem , imagining that we are smarter than the crowd and while we try to proof it for ourselves, the crowd earns money?
For example, winners of last week were among bearish spikers and their results were modest, compared to Members who were bullish.
Many of us have manically shorted Mr. Market from week to week, but it has been climbing and climbing.
Based on technical and sentiment indicators , market is overbought and there are no ideas for professional traders to buy this market.
Jason from sentimentrader.com has been neutral since beginning of April.
Of course he didn’t participate in the last two weeks of peakining, however he saved his capital.
May we need some rest?
I think, some of us need a psychological advice.
Best regards
*******************
FROM A MEMBER:
Hello Alex,
All the STOCKs that I have been followING for months have increased by 50% and more, some of them doubled or tripled.
At the beginning of March, I was about to jump into the market and buy with both hands. At that time many signals told me a reversal could appear soon. I didn’t do it because that was not the way I learned: chasing the lows, red impulse, massive amounts of money into a few stocks, etc.
Since then, I have been watching the market going higher and higher. All my friends, amateurs, are buying and making money. Even my mother is making money and everyone is wondering what’s going on with me, the most educated one on the topic. The greater fool theory works perfectly as Stephen M suggested it a few weeks ago. They buy far from the averages and their values keep going higher.
I feel very stupid. In fact, I have never felt so dumB. I have the feeling that all the work I perform religiously on a daily basis is useless. In addition to technical analysis and psychology, you can’t imagine how much I read about the financial system, the economy, the complex relations between gold, Oil, USD and raw materials as well as Forex in order to understand the environment I had to face up, aiming at building a consistent system for monitoring the markets and trading in a professional way.
Reading in your books that the market is manic-depressive is one thing. Living it is another story.
I made some money with the energy sector capturing one third of the movement. However, you know how the beginner’s mind works: I can’t help calculating how much I could have earned if … and if … I’m trapped in mental loops of fictive profits with all the values I followed.
You are a busy guy and you don’t have to answer me. I just want my shout to be heard by someone who understands because around me, it is the garden party. Regrets, sadness, bitterness, frustration, I feel very lonely. I can’t imagine the day I will be able to make a living with the markets. I’m ashamed of my poor performance. It is hard to stand back and to see this situation with a pinch of salt.
Have a nice week-end.
***************
Thank you for your sincere emails.
To all – please comment, and I will return with my own comments later
all the best,
Alex