31-Mar

A kangaroo tail?

Hello SpikeTraders,Yesterday I showed you a chart with the highest peak since 2019 of capitalization-based New Highs line. That peak was on Tuesday, on Wednesday the market began to exhale, and it continued today.[ For our new Members: you can look up all previous posts for any section by clicking on the archive link at the bottom of any page. ] Let’s see what today’s charts tell us…

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30-Mar

A record peak of Cap-NH

Hello SpikeTraders,Going on my first airplane flight in two years made this experienced traveler feel a bit rusty on the way out, forgetting how things are done. Coming back served me another reminder – not to trade the first day or two after a transoceanic flight. Not fully focused, a bit of jet lag, I ran up a couple of losing trades. Nothing dramatic, but unpleasant, and a useful reminder for the future: trade only when you are fully focused and certainly not the day after big travel. Refresher received.Now, let’s take a look at our charts…

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27-Oct

Deciding Strategic Position

As a swing trader, decide to be a bull or a bear on the weeklies – execute on the dailies. As a day-trader, decide to be a bull or a bear on a 25-minute chart, execute on a 5-minute chart. Kerry, by the way, prefers a different pair – he makes his strategic decisions on 39-minute charts, executes on 8-minute charts (notice that he uses the same ratio – about 5 to 1).Look at it this way: you see an attractive girl in a club and want to invite her to dance. Take a look at the bigger picture: is she at the club with a bunch of girlfriends or is there a big mean guy with a facial tattoo right behind her, staring at you? Do yourself a favor and make a strategic decision based on the big picture before zooming in on your attractive trade!Spend some time looking at many trades featured in our A&K Journal on the website – and you will see multiple examples of this strategy. Remember: make a strategic decision on the longer-term chart, tactical on the shorter-term chart, and keep the ratio between them at about five to one.Alex

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30-May

Believe Your Eyes, Do Not Buy Hope

While working on SpikeSpeak, I stepped out for a bite to eat. As I walked in the shade on 28th Street, a car pulled over, its driver rolled down the window and started speaking to me in Italian. From what little I understood, he was asking for directions to FDR Drive, a major highway nearby. I answered him in Spanish that he had to turn left on Third Avenue, right on 34th Street, and he’d be there. He was profusely grateful, and somehow his English seemed to improve. He told me it was his first time in New York, that he just finished a fashion show at the Javits center (a major local arena), and gave me his business card. He said he was representing Armani and happened to have a few pieces in the back of his car he wanted to get rid of before flying home.Somehow, being offered cheap Armani goods from a car on a side street, coupled with his rapidly improving English seemed a bit too good to be true. I waved him off and walked. After turning the corner on Third Avenue I stepped into a shop, turned around and looked at the intersection through the window. The light changed, and my new friend’s car drove straight through the intersection, never turning on the avenue in the direction of the FDR, about which he had stopped to ask. Having avoided his hook, I walked to to a very pleasant plate of sushi, sharing a beer with the sushi chef.This was just like the market: when something seems too good to be true, it usually is a fake. When an indicator rings a quiet alarm, like that rapidly changing accent, we better listen. Avoid wishful thinking. The world is full of goodness, but it does not usually take shape of a stranger offering discounted goods. Wishing to believe that we are special makes us ignore warning signs – in life in general and in the markets in particular.

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14-Jul

Shorting Tesla [TSLA]

[I sent an email to Barry S who recommended shorting TSLA for two weekends in a row:”Barry – just curious – have you been able to short TSLA?I tried to day-trade it short through TradeStation, but the broker said ‘shares not available for shorting?’Thanksalex”]See Barry’s take on TSLA:Hi Alex.NO.I have tried to short it many times with TD Waterhouse (Canada) since it hit $30.00 but have had no hits regardless of quantity or timing. I continue to work on it.Sorry. It would have been nice for the two of us. My guess is that it will stay around the 17.00 IPO until they start running out of operating funds.It should drop another 50% while they run a second round of funding.However the all electric car is here to stay and we will see a major economic shift around it. OIL / gas/ etc. are a thing of the past. Look for a repeat of Ford’s economic contribution via the assembly line. The electric car business will boom on some quantum shift like the assembly line – not simply on the existing technology. All great “inventions” are merely a combination of two or three existing technologies. What needs to combine with the electric car to make it a go?This IPO highlights the monumental financial energy awaiting that leap.All the bestBarry

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