4-Apr

There is always something to worry about in the markets

Hello SpikeTraders,Markets rallied today, closing near the day’s highs as investors/traders now begin to focus on an inverted yield curve. The 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve remained inverted, which has signaled in the past that a recession may follow in one to two years. One thing is for sure; the markets always have something to worry about, and why markets should not be going up or cannot fall any lower. It is precisely why I prefer to follow price action and not the day’s worries. Let’s look at the charts…

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27-Mar

Daily trend is up, will weekly trend turn up next?

Hello SpikeTraders,Markets have closed higher for two weeks, moving the daily trend from down to up and testing weekly resistance. I posted last week how we have to be careful about becoming bored when there is nothing new to analyze. We do not always get information every day that changes or adds to researching the market. It can be dangerous to become bored with a market that has nothing new to add to what we are analyzing. We can start looking so hard for something we begin seeing mirages. Worse is, we can start looking for information to align with our bias if we have one. So if we have more bullish opinions, we look for bullish confirming data, and if bearish, we look for bearish confirming data. The more important thing is to have a trading plan based on data and research. What does the market have to do for you to take on risk or remove risk? Let’s look at the charts…

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12-Oct

Trading styles

There are three basic main styles:1. Trend Following (Position Trading)2. Swing Trading3. Day TradingWithin these styles there are sub styles of trading, counter trend trading, momentum trading, low volatility style, and scalping.I would say the most difficult style is day trading. Day trading can and will have the most emotional turmoil of all the trading and why I believe it is the most difficult style. It requires intense focus and processing of information to make decisions very quickly. One cannot stop to think about what they will do, they must know what they will do the instant they see the action and the discipline to act must be solid. There is very little room for error.Trend following (Position Trading) is likely the easiest of the styles but it is the most boring and many find it difficult to have the patience to wait for trends to form and the patience to sit in trends while they work. It is also difficult to sit thru the drawdowns while trends pull back and one waits to see if the trend will end.Swing trading is the most popular and personally is my favorite style. I would not say it is easy to master, nothing in trading is. It does tend interest most traders as you do not need to make lightning fast decisions and you can take time in the evening to set up trade plans. It can be rewarding quicker than trend following but not necessary to make lightning fast decisions that is required in day trading. I would say the difficult part is the time it takes to sort thru and find reasonable trade set ups. The danger is we get caught trading lots of mediocre trades and churn our accounts.I prefer a mix of swing trading partial position and trend following the balance. I find it works and suits my personality well. I do day trade when the action becomes too volatile and we do not have intermediate bullish cycles in place that is more conducive to my personal style. Not all styles are conducive in all market conditions. There are times our style of trading and the particular system we trade will have us on the sidelines in cash, which can be the most difficult position to hold.For the past several weeks I have been in day trade mode. This does not suggest I sit in front of the computer each day and crank out 10 – 30 trades every day. I use basically the same strategies just on smaller time frames. A the volatility rises we can get the same movement in markets in hours that could take days to occur when volatility is low and bullish cycles exist. This helps control risk by eliminating holding lots of positions overnight. During higher volatile markets we experience many more knee jerk reactions and larger gaps overnight. These gaps can erase existing profits fast or accumulate losses quickly.

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14-Sep

How to Determine Trends

What is the best way to determine trends and analyze the current trend condition?The basic structure of trends is prices making higher lows within an uptrend and lower highs within a downtrend. When looking at charts with all our indicators and price bars showing the intraday highs and lows we can lose sight of a basic trend structure.Let’s take a look at a chart of closing prices only, but smoothing out the price fluctuations using a simple 3 period moving average.

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