19-Sep

Training Yourself

[this post came from Jeff P, one of our Spikers – AE]Last week I had lunch with fellow Spiker Mike Brenke. I’ve known Mike since we both became Spikers the same quarter in 2006. We live about 10 miles apart and talk often.Over the past 6 months or so, he has become a different trader. I can tell it in the way he talks and more importantly, you can see it in his results. The story of his recent evolution is very instructive and interesting and I encourage him to tell it as his story is not mine to share. However, as often happens in life, a single comment he made to me has refocused my direction and led to this entry.He was telling me about the changes in his focus and thought processes when he paused and said, “You know, I think it can be of great benefit to clear all your assumptions and consider how you would train someone to trade if they were starting with no experience.” Wow, that was a very profound thought! I’ve rolled it around in my head for a few days and I’ve decided that I would take this approach, but I would be my own student!I decided as an initial experiment, I would imagine sending a message back to me when I began trading from me, “Future Jeff”. This message contains 7 ideas that I wish I had known at the beginning. Perhaps learning them properly, at the beginning would have prevented the need for the market teaching me over the years, in some cases more than once!No single trade will make your career so don’t let a single trade end it.Ah, the eternal quest for the home run! A trade which may make 1000 dollars could make 2000 with twice the size. 4000 by going on margin. If you buy the bottom and sell top, as we all do, the sky is the limit!Trading is not like winning the lottery. A successful career is made over years and contains many losses. A prerequisite for making it is not evaporating your trading account. Never put yourself in a position where one trade can wipe you out. Always have a stop loss in the market and keep your position size at a level where even the company going bankrupt doesn’t leave your account the same way. Survive, then thrive!No trade can be made unless you can explain why you are making it and what will take you outMaking a trade is such an easy thing to do. Make a few mouse clicks and suddenly, you are in a trade! It’s exciting and fun! It’s so easy to do, you may be in a trade with the only explanation being “I think it will go up.”Well, that is not adequate. Not only do you need to have a plan prior to entry, it needs to be clear enough to explain to another person. Ideally, another trader could take your plan and execute the trade the way you intend. If it’s not clear what condition will put you into the trade and why and similarly, what takes you out at a profit or loss, then you are not trading responsibly but instead are gambling.Understand Price ActionMost traders spend their development years looking at tons of different price based indicators most if not all of which are derivative of price action. The signals produced certainly have value, but a key to interpreting them is understanding the overall market structure. A MACD histogram divergence will have different meanings if the price is trending up rather than down.My trading has improved as I’ve reduced the number of indicators I consider and instead focus more on the structure of this market and how the price is reacting.Think about the risk firstIt is our nature to look at a trade and consider how much money we can make. That is certainly a necessary part of the trade evaluation process; however it is not to be done in a vacuum.Survival and ultimate success in the market is determined by the risk one takes. A trade which makes 10% if it works is a reasonable bet if you have to risk 3% on it but not so much if you have to risk more than 5%.At this point in my career, I determine my entry and protective stop first so that I’m not tempted to tweak those values to improve the odds.Expect, accept and plan for the losing tradeThe losing trade can be difficult to swallow. A big losing trade not only slams your account but it also can be devastating to your confidence.All traders take losses. If you know they are coming and expect they will happen from time to time, it’s easier to keep them in perspective. It will also reduce the chance that you will fall victim to the twin mistakes of moving your stops further away ( or pulling them completely) or averaging losers thinking the position will now have to move less to get profitable.Ultimately, these actions come from an unwillingness to take losses. The attitude needs to be developed where losses are just part of the cost of doing business and a losing trade is one of the statistical group that just didn’t work out.Trade Often – Trade SmallI remember Alex once saying that at the beginning of a career is when a trader is at their worst and the key is to survive and improve. Much of the prior writing will help in the survive aspect, however to improve one must trade and analyze the results.As you begin, or recover from a down period, you aren’t going to produce life changing income. So trade small. Make sure the amount risked is all but trivial. Get a track record of trades and once success is established, move up the risk a little and repeat. Keep making progress and keep performing post mortems on your trades! That will help you improve the quickest and get you back on track when things start going wrong.Pick a single stock and look at it every day If you follow one particular market day in and day out, over time you will see most every situation play out. That alone has great value, but even more important is that you will see it in context. You will see topping patterns after following it during a long uptrend. You will develop a deep perception concerning when it is over or under sold.A good selection for this is a market proxy such as SPY or a conglomerate such as GE. If you have a particular favorite you want to follow, but it is a bit focused such as Timberland, I say by all means but I would strongly suggest adding a GE or SPY or another along those lines.Each trading day look at the weekly, daily and at least one intra-day time frame. Not only will it further your education, it may lead to some nice trading opportunities!ConclusionAfter several days of thought, these are the best suggestions I have. However, I suggest that you each go through this exercise and document any ideas you would share if you could train yourself at the onset. Feel free to post the ideas to the blog and if this grows, I may talk to Alex and Kerry about combining the thread into a single document.Jeff P

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18-Sep

A Bounce in Bonds? by Grant C

Since we don’t trade bonds in Spike, I thought I would post a potential long bond trade via TLT, the 20-year bond ETF. TLT has formed a high level RST bottom pattern on the daily. As can be seen on the weekly chart, this is taking place after a 4-week decline. Some support should form here at the bottom of a gap and rising long-term MAs. Probably good for a swing trade back to the declining 20-day EMA. There are also leveraged ETFs–TMF–available, or the futures if you lean that way.

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8-Sep

Squeeze in here, and gold is done by Grant C

I hate markets like this–nothing is going on for a swing trader, and the day traders are gloating about the intraday moves. While I itch to make a trade, past experience tells me not to fire up the real time charts. Or, then I need to quit my day job because I find day trading far too consuming to focus on anything else. So, that said, I’m posting a daily and weekly chart of the SPY–both show price captured by the 200 EMA/SMA zone, and the coming squeeze as the volatility bands tighten. All I can say is that we’re going to get a nice move eventually, but direction is not clear yet.On the over hand, UGL (same pattern as the GLD), the Ultra long gold ETF chart shows a telltale sign that price has hit resistance and been rejected. If we get a lower close tomorrow or the next day that will confirm a false breakout and we should correct. Note that similar tests of resistance that were rejected declined quickly. My choice for a move lower will be GLL, the inverse gold ETF.

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7-Sep

DELL RST Revisited by Grant C

Awhile back, I mentioned that DELL had formed an RST on the daily chart. At the same time, it has formed an RST on the weekly chart, which is extremely rare. DELL has now reversed its trend, and we should be looking to go long on pullbacks on the daily chart. Look to buy around the rising 20 EMA; note the up crossing 8 EMA and the indications of a squeeze.

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29-Aug

ONE WAY TO TRADE EARNINGS (for the blog)

ONE WAY TO TRADE EARNINGSENER, (Energy Conversion Devices, Inc.) could potentially set up for a good long trade this week. They announce on Tuesday and I’m expecting a knee jerk sell off by diehard longs – a reaction which will provide a cover opportunity for long term bears who have hung on to their shorts. If this were to happen, it would post a false breakout of a new low accompanied by a weekly bullish MACD divergence that is missing the right shoulder. This would also trace a beautiful double bottom. If the guidance is good, it will be also offer a low risk profitable opportunity for new longs. Other factors that might influence this scenario:

  1. dollar looks to have weakened,
  2. Oil appears to have put in a short term bottom.
  3. General market and the Solar sector look like they want to rally for now.

ENER trades in a similar fashion to SPWRA which recorded these exact footsteps last week.This is definitely a trade on the edge of extreme, with many fingers on hair triggers – both on the heavy short side as well as the bag holder long side. But if it comes together accordingly, it could be a nice catch.All too often, we hear how we absolutely shouldn’t trade prior to, thru or just after earnings. While this is good advice the majority of the time, there are situations that bring exceptions into play. This stock and its current stance might be one of those times.The stock has been manipulated down way below its book value and more than reflects a horrible earnings report.So if they miss, I would expect the news to be bought but not before a new low is put in from an over reaction by weak hands to the announcement. Subsequent to that, a nice leg up (fueled by a squeeze) should ensue.I would wait for the false breakout to materialize (post earnings) and get long when it reclaims a position above resistance.

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28-Aug

Squeezer’s Delight Revisited

Awhile back I pointed out SMG, a stock that formed numerous squeeze set-ups on the weekly chart. Since the stock bottomed in July 2008 around 17, it marched to 50 in 4 distinct weekly squeezes, and now is laboring on the 5th. Frankly, I’ve never seen this behavior before, and I’m fascinated. I keep coming back and trading SMG based on the daily chart, waiting to see when this remarkable series ends.My trading tactic has been to use the daily charts for short-term buys, using the 2-day RSI and 2-day FI to define short-term oversold conditions. Exists have been when price pierced the upper volatility band. While I’m long now, I think the stock is about finished. Maybe we get a retest of 50, but I’m cautious and looking to get out.

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24-Aug

Unusual U Bottom in HSY by Grant C

Hershy, or HSY, has formed a very unusual U shaped bottom on the daily chart. However, in reality, it’s actually a U shaped base as you can see on the weekly chart. Instead of correcting its long bull run with the usual decline, HSY is trading sideways. Buyers, or a large buyer, are contend to buy on mid-day weakness and push the price up a touch around the close. The U shape and the multiple Hammer candles forming the bottom are telltale signs of accumulation. As we moved up the right side, early buyers around the 46 area sold to lock in profits around 48. Volume has not been heavy in the last two sell-off days, and if it doesn’t increase and the price forms a couple of narrow-range bars, then the run to the upside is on. However, this is a potentially strong stock in a low-volume/news driven market so caution is a must.For market historians, this U-shaped base was very common and popular during the great Info/Tech bull run in the 1990s. William O’Neil built the Daily Investor newspaper empire on it. And for awhile there, all we had to do was see one developing, take a position as millions of other traders jumped in to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Now, in this hedge fund dominated market with its short-term bursts and craters, you don’t find it much. In fact, this is the first one I’ve seen, or traded in the last two years, so I’m curious as to how it unfolds. As a point of transparency, I sold it a couple of days back, but I’m looking to test the pattern again shortly.

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22-Aug

Reverse Symmetrical Triangles by Grant C

Lately, I’ve been trading a set up called the Reverse Symmetrical Triangle, or RST. The pattern is a variation of the 1,2,3 Bottoms and Tops I like to trade, and offers an early entry to a trend reversal. It’s the opposite of a symmetrical triangle, where the pivots trace out a narrowing pattern that erupts in a break out or break down. The RST looks like a megaphone with the trend reversal leg connecting three pivots and the non-trend leg connecting two. In the case of CNH, the trend is down and the RST identifies the bottom and provides an excellent entry into a trend reversal.There are several versions of both the 1,2,3 Bottom and Tops, and the RST Bottom and Top patterns and the more I explore them, the more I find symmetry in the market. The hardest thing about these patterns is to train the eye to find them. Once you start to trade them, they become easier to spot, particularly as you find them profitable.

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