8-Feb

The U.S. Dollar (by Daniel S in Brazil)

This Weekly chart of the US Dollar shows that it hit its long term support at 74.50 nine weeks ago, which should enable the Dollar to gain traction for the upside … it did.Note the weekly support level at 77.86 with the Dollar now above that level. The Dollar continues to gain strength, which should take it up to the 80 – 82 level where it will meet its first important resistance. Let us continue to monitor …Daniel SBrazil

Find out more

3-Feb

UGL, a 1,2,3 Bottom trade by Grant C

I thought I would post another of my 1,2,3 Bottom trades. It shows the 1,2,3 Bottom forming over a longer period than usual, and above the 200 SMA. The ones that form above the 200 SMA seem particularly successful. On the weekly, the decline retraced 60% of the original up move, and then settled at 50% on the second downturn. Finding support at the 50% retracement and forming a higher low, while the MACD-H and FI tick up provides further confidence. UGL is a 2X ETF that tracks the price of gold, similar to GLD. The first target is 50, and then the old high at 57. I may add to the position if we consolidate around the 20 EMA for a couple of days without losing much ground. I actually tried to enter this trade 5 days earlier and got stopped out, but when price slipped and 2-day FI didn’t, I decided to watch for another entrance. This one is profitable.–Grant CookeSustainable Energy Associatesgcooke@sustainableenergyassc.com925-989-7117

Find out more

13-Jan

One Spiker’s Approach by Grant C

Recently, a Spike Member asked me a few questions about my approach. Alex thought it might be of general interest, so I’ll post it. It started with a question about AAPL, which is referenced in the accompanying chart.While I think the market (1/13/2010) is short-term oversold, I don’t see a lot of potential profit left. So, I’m basically flat, having sold my inverse ETFs (QID, SSG, SKF, and a few others this morning). I also covered my shorts (except for MO) this morning as the market sold off early. I did this because I’m going to the airport and don’t want to let any profits (though some are small) slip away over the next few days. I dislike worrying about positions while I’m traveling or concentrating on my business. Over the years, I’ve accepted a style of trading that fits my personality–short-term swing trading, buy weakness and sell strength with multiple low-risk, small profit trades, and lots of action.So, I’ve come to accept the fact I can’t really trade with trailing stops supporting cumulative profits over long holding periods. I prefer to trade ETFs, but will trade large cap stocks that have high-volume and clearly defined patterns–1,2,3 Tops & Bottoms, or similar formations. I trade in the direction of the weekly charts, and use a 2-day RSI to pinpoint oversold conditions. I typically will buy when the 2-day RSI is around 10-15 and sell when it goes above 70. After many years of experimenting, I’ve settled on a short-term MACD that is 3,10,16.I use the MACD mostly to find short-term bullish or bearish divergences on the daily charts. I also look for higher lows on the MACD. I don’t day-trade–it makes me too nervous, but will look to enter longs during mid-morning slumps or usually at the close. I try to cut losses as fast as possible and never risk more than 1 percent of my account on one trade, usually not more than half a percent. Over the years, trading has been a fascinating hobby with enormous challenges, horrible disappointments and enough profits to keep me coming back. For 2010, I’ve managed to change my day job, and now run my business out of my house. I’m trying to concentrate more on trading these days, because I anticipate a volatile market in 2010 and look forward to the challenges. The upshot of all this is that Alex and Kerry are extraordinarily capable teachers and their ideas are practical and profitable. I’ve taken what they do and adapted it to my personality and it seems to work.

Find out more

13-Jan

More 1,2,3 Tops by Grant C

The market has had a mighty run, but many of the stocks in my database are forming my favorite reversal pattern–the 1,2,3 Top. A couple of folks have asked me about it, so I thought I would post some charts as a refresher. Most of the ones I’m currently trading all have huge bearish divergences on the weekly charts, greatly contributing to the pattern’s reliability.For those not familiar with the 1,2,3 Top (or 1,2,3 Bottoms) the pattern is based on the classic market dynamic that almost all significant tops, or bottoms, consist of 3 moves–# 1 is an initial thrust that ends a trend, followed by #2 a pullback as the smart money takes profits, then #3 is a retest of highs as late comers want another shot at glory. The pattern completes as price trades below #3 and forms a pivot. Short on the close of the move below #3, and the stop is above the high of #3, or #1, whichever makes the most sense. The lowest risk is to short on the close below the #3 low, so you need to adjust the number of shares traded based on money management. I particularly like 1,2,3 Tops because they tend to trap late buyers who quickly sell their shares when they realize the up move is failing. Look for lower volume on move #3 and increasing volume on the move down.As I cycle through my database I’m seeing many stocks in various stages of the pattern. Traders say that when the averages are forming a top, 1/3 of the stocks will peak before the top (probably now), 1/3 will peak along with the averages, and 1/3 after the averages peak. So, I’m looking for a host of 1,2,3 Top opportunities over the next few weeks, or short trades after half-hearted bounces as the stocks correct.–Grant CookeSustainable Energy Associatesgcooke@sustainableenergyassc.com925-989-7117

Find out more

7-Jan

WFR and the Solars–Breath Among Charred Remains by Grant C

I admit to recent inattention to a few stock groups–business demands, and more focus on ETFs and gold stocks being the culprits. Much has gone on in groups that had been appealing months, even years ago. In some cases, like the solar stocks, the Bear has trashed them behind recognition.WFR, a former high flyer in the 2006-2007 period, plunged from around 100 to the 12-14 level even as oil prices recovered to $80. In fact, almost the whole group of former solar stars–FSLR, LDK, HOKU, ASTI, SOL, ESLR–have thudded down from unsustainable highs. Now, months after sideways action, they are AFAs, or Alex’s Fallen Angels.As most know, these are former high flyers that have crashed and burned, yet still have a pulse in charred remains. Or, less descriptively, they have formed a really big ‘L” on the weekly charts, price is close to the flattening long-term MAs, and there are subtle signs of accumulation on the daily charts. Most of the solar stocks in my database fit this pattern, more or less, and I’m looking to buy them on weakness. The daily chart of WFR clearly shows renewed interest, or accumulation, in the FI and the upturned MAs. We have even managed to get to ST/OB and a break of the volatility bands, two signs that the game is on. I’m looking to buy on a bounce off the rising 20 EMA for a run to the 200 SMA. Generally, we should find resistance at the 200 SMA and another pullback and retest and eventually, we pop through and start a bull run.While I’m expecting some sort of market correction soon, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the solar stocks and probably the biotechs, morph into leaders for 2010.

Find out more

28-Dec

Baltic Dry Leads S&P: Watch Out Below – By Roger R

[this just in from a SpikeTrade Member in Australia – Alex]There has been much talk over the last few months about a pullback on the S&P. It might be wise to keep one eye on the Baltic dry Index. Should it break the trend line; the pullback might become a fall back.Baltic IndexThe Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a daily average of prices to ship raw materials. It represents the cost paid by an end customer to have a shipping company transport raw materials across seas on the Baltic Exchange, the global marketplace for brokering shipping contracts. The BDI acts as a leading economic indicator.More information can be found at: wikiNotice the BDI bottomed several months ahead of the stock market (march 2009 bottom), and then picked up strength. At the time of writing the BDI was at 3005, with support at 2700. Should support not hold, then all bets are off in the equity markets.Roger

Find out more

28-Dec

How Spike has Helped My Trading – by Jeff P

[Jeff P is one of the winningest Spikers, a serious trader, and the programmer of AK47 record-keeping software – Alex]How Spike has Helped My TradingMy career as a Spiker began in Q3 2006, shortly after the Amish reunion. I had the misfortune of having quick success! One of my first picks resulted in a 30% return and I decided that I really knew what I was doing. Unfortunately, it was undeserved confidence!For a while in that quarter, I had a pretty big lead in points and equity. However, as the quarter wore on, my equity took nick after nick, along with my confidence. To make matters worse, Dave F. went on an incredible run winning week after week. I would up taking silver in points and equity, which was a big disappointment. If you notice, in this paragraph I’ve used the words “confidence” and “disappointment”. I have learned that such emotional responses are warning signs of dangerous trading. The warning was fulfilled in Q4.In the last quarter of 2006, I tried a myriad of approaches and as the quarter wore on, I became more panicked. Losing trade followed losing trade. Ultimately, it became obvious that I had no idea what I was doing! I finished the quarter down more than 25% and more than $150 dollars below the next lowest person! What a humbling experience. After that, Kerry and Alex implemented the first rules to deal with and hopefully control such extreme losses. In my emotionally weakened state, I asked if these rules were designed to get me out of the group. The both said “No, not at all”. I knew in my heart that while that may not be the goal, the idea was to prevent such inferior performance as I had shown. I decided that I would never have such a quarter again.Actually, 2006 wasn’t a total loss. I won gold in the Long Term Trading Competition, starting a trend which continues through this year where I’ve won some sort of year end medal.Each year since 2006 I have seen evidence of positive growth. My equity at the end of each year has been higher than the prior with 2008 and 2009 both being positive. My lowest quarter each year has been prior than the last, with all 4 quarters being positive this year. I haven’t had an excessive weekly loss in a long time. I got hit with a gap down the second to last week in 2009 and still lost just 2.99%.Contrary to the way this reads, I didn’t write this to pat myself on the back. While I’m more consistent and clear in my approach than ever, I still have the ability to do severe damage to my account and self confidence. Rather, I am writing this as a form of positive reinforcement to me and also in the hope that it will help some of you advance as traders. Rather than continuing in a boring stream of consciousness format, I’m going to hit the highpoints of the changes I made and continue to refine on my growth path as a trader.

  1. Control and Limit my RiskBefore the “Jeff Parker Warning Bench Rule of 2007” I would on occasion risk as much as 10% on a trade! Part of the reason for this is that I looked at taking a loss as an indication that I was “wrong” with all of the unpleasant psychological baggage associated that feeling. It took a long time to shift that paradigm but I am much netter in that regard. I understand that when I make a trade it is because I believe there is a better chance the stock will go one way rather than the other. However, a certain number of those trades will go against be and there is absolutely no way to predict which will win or which will lose with accuracy. Therefore, there is only one “wrong” type of trade and that is one which does not follow a defined pattern or one where I risk more than which is permissible according to my plan. In Spike, my limit is absolute at 3% per week and I prefer to keep it at 2%. If a logical stop exceeds those limits, I cannot trade it. In my personal trading my limit is 1%.
  2. Create a Trading Plan and Define my MethodsThis step was one I knew I needed to do but put off for months. A trading plan requires answering some hard questions and is a lot of work. When you are done, however your approach should be much more crystallized. I’ve done this several times and am starting the process again. My preference is to start fresh rather than edit an existing version in part because I want to keep my mind open. When complete, I then compare the new version with the prior to make sure I get the best of both.Defining ones individual trading methods is critical. You need to know exactly what you are looking for to trade, otherwise how will you know when you find it! I’ve found the more detail I apply, the better. For a given method, such as a “Pullback to Value” trade, I describe what it looks like, what gets me in, what gets me out (Stop and Target) and I also include examples. I also include what characteristics it must have and that which it must not have like upcoming earnings. My idea of a complete plan is one where I could give it to an equal or superior trader and they would have no trouble trading it as I would.
  3. Work with OthersTrading is a lonely, difficult business. If you can develop a relationship with another, or a few traders it can make a big difference in your progress. It is absolutely critical that the other traders can trust you and you can trust them. If it is not a safe environment, the relationships can do more harm than good. It is also important that each person contributes and each person gets something out of it. Time and schedules must be balanced so that continual progress is made and so that it doesn’t become an obligation.Other traders can give you reality checks on your trades, help clear up areas of misunderstanding and give you added incentive to reach your goals. They can be the trading equivalent of an exercise partner!
  4. Document Your Trades and Track Your ResultsThe final area that I want to suggest for improvement involves documenting your trades. Spike has helped me a great deal in this regard in that each week I know that people will be looking at my pick, many paying for the “privilege” and I want to make sure that my thoughts are as clear as possible. However, this isn’t purely altruism at work. This approach makes me be absolutely clear about my trade and as a result, my Spike picks have done better than my other trades. I almost always trade my Spike pick. I think I haven’t done so about 2 or 3 times over the last 3.5 years.If you are not documenting your trades, begin right now! Document why you are making the trade, what you have at risk and later, how it worked out. Don’t worry about having the perfect format. You can tweak it as you go.

I hope you find these tips of use in growing as a trader. I wish you the best in this process!Jeff P

Find out more

27-Dec

Gold Targets – By Roger R (from Australia)

Roger writes: I’ve done a little analysis on Gold.Gold has just touched on Fibonacci 76% retracement level. Could this be the current bottom in Gold?Looking back to June 2006, there was a blow-off similar to what we are seeing.Price rose from $540 to $725 in a very short period of time, only to retrace 100% of its previous gains. In doing so, it punched through the 200-day moving average. The 200 MA is currently around $1026. A punch-through could hit $1000.Long at $1030 wouldn’t be all bad.Have a Merry ChristmasRoger

Find out more

Subscribe to Our Updates

Terms of Service | Privacy Policy | Refund Policy

SpikeTrade © 2024. All Rights Reserved.