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Hello SpikeTraders,I headlined my NHNL post after last Wednesday’s rally “Spike Bounce starts to behave” – but the rally didn’t last. On Thursday of the four-day week the market opened higher and took out Wednesday’s high – only to collapse and close slightly below Wednesday’s low.Well, we have a whole new fresh week ahead of us; let’s examine our charts…
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Hello SpikeTraders,A reminder: all US markets will be closed on Friday, April 15, for the Good Friday holiday. We’ll have a four-day trading week.Next week will be busy with the Q1-2022 earnings season reporting. Technically markets are fighting to hold key support areas as new monthly lows begin to increase above 500, levels we have been mentioning to watch closely. We will want to pay close attention to these earnings reports providing a positive or negative catalyst going forward. If we start seeing misses and lower guidance as technically key support areas are breaking down, the selling pressure will increase, and a move to test the March lows is likely. Let’s look at the charts…
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Hello SpikeTraders,The US market had traced multiple bullish divergences between its January 24 and February 24 lows, which we documented repeatedly here. The rally that emerged from the final test of the bottom on March 15 proceeded very smoothly – until last week. There was a very aggressive peak on Tuesday (see the Cap-NHNL chart below), bad drops on Wednesday and especially Thursday, but then the market stabilized on Friday.Let’s review our latest charts …
Hello SpikeTraders,Markets have closed higher for two weeks, moving the daily trend from down to up and testing weekly resistance. I posted last week how we have to be careful about becoming bored when there is nothing new to analyze. We do not always get information every day that changes or adds to researching the market. It can be dangerous to become bored with a market that has nothing new to add to what we are analyzing. We can start looking so hard for something we begin seeing mirages. Worse is, we can start looking for information to align with our bias if we have one. So if we have more bullish opinions, we look for bullish confirming data, and if bearish, we look for bearish confirming data. The more important thing is to have a trading plan based on data and research. What does the market have to do for you to take on risk or remove risk? Let’s look at the charts…
Dear Spiker’s and Spike Members,Alex and Pat are getting ready to fly back to NYC this weekend. I have been re-cooperating from a recent double computer crash. Yes, two computers went on the blink in one week. During my re-install, I decided to clean house (hard drives) and re-organize. I am close to fully restored and back to some normalcy.The markets saw a long awaited bounce in this bear market. The market was again hugely oversold and saw levels not seen since the November lows. The financial sector saw gains of 30+%, a typical bear market move. The beaten down sectors rally the most. We will eventually need to see leadership for this rally to be more than just a bounce. Leadership will eventually been seen in NH_NL crossing the 0 and +100 levels and maintaining that level. We will also see a sector or two leading the way. It does not have to be the financials to lead us out of this mess, but they will have to stabilize and stop being decimated. Last week I listed several points we see in boom and bust cycles got thru. A couple of the items were…
Hello Spikers and Spike Members,It is a beautiful sunny day here in the South. Nice 70 degree weather and I just returned from a nice lunch and quick drive by the lake and mountains, topless.A few admin notes…There have been several new videos posted in the Video Vault in the Website Tutorial channel. We have our Honor Roll section fully functional so check out the link. Weekly results will be posted here starting this week. We will no longer post the chart in the Spike comments section. Videos are posted in the Video Vault describing the sections of the website. Please let us know your comments and other features you are most interested in.
I have a skylight in the ceiling of my bedroom, and this morning, when I woke up, it looked as if someone threw diamonds on it. It must have rained at night, and then it got colder, freezing the raindrops into clumps of ice. Today is March 1, and just two days ago the weather was so warm that I could walk outdoors in a shirt. Does last night’s ice mean that the winter is back?By now we’ve been in a bear market for almost a year and a half. The broad stock market indexes, such as the Dow and the S&P, have lost over 50% of their value, with many individual stocks losing much more. Last Monday, Feb 23, the Dow broke its 2002 low, with the S&P holding one point above its own low, and then both rallied. On Friday, both the Dow and the S&P fell to new bear market lows, with the S&P breaking below its 2002 level.
Hello from a sunny but cold Alabama. We have a beautiful day here although slightly on the chilly side with clear blue skies as the temperatures remain in the 30’s. A nice day to sit near the window taking in the sun and reading a book while staying warm inside. I am beginning a new book called the “The Power of Less” and I will report back once I have completed the read. I have always been a fan of Maximize with the minimum. A motto I have tried to subscribe to in my business operations. In the trading world it is very important we maximize with the minimum. Many times our tools and indicators will say very little or nothing at all. We as humans will attempt to extract information out of them when there is nothing to extract. We forget there is certain randomness to the markets and there are times when there is nothing to game. Recently we mentioned the indicator McClellan Oscillator. Like another tool this indicator many times tells us nothing and at times speaks loudly. The McClellan Oscillator a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. It is primarily used for short and intermediate term trading. To calculate subtract a 39 day EMA (of advancing issues – declining issues) from a 19 day EMA (of advancing issues – declining issues). Friday this indicator hit the -300 level. (Depending on your data provider) We mentioned in Fridays NH_NL report that this has only occurred 8 times.
Patience is a hard virtue. Where are the warm days of a bull market? Buy pullbacks, leisurely take profits on rallies, and never fear to overstay a trade because the rising tide will eventually make up for most mistakes. Not so in a bear market. The declines are vicious but brief, followed by sharp rallies; good timing is essential. This bear is growing old, but an aging bear can give a vicious fight, and taking out the November lows would not be one bit surprising.
Please pass the Tabasco, I need to sprinkle it on my hat before I chew! Last week I joined the majority of Spikers and SpikeTrade Members – and selected a short pick as my favorite. The market, an unforgiving teacher, has promptly delivered its kick and rallied. How should I position for the week ahead?