Rodryk writes: I highly recommend looking at an article titled “The Aftermath of Financial Crises”.

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/51_Aftermath.pdf

On p.5 there is a graph showing peak-to-trough equity price declines and years duration of downturn.

Interestingly, the average peak-to-trough equity price decline in historic bear markets after severe financial crises was -55.9%, with the average downturn phase of the cycle lasting 3.4 years. Considering the S&P high of 1576.09 in Oct 2007 and the low of 666.79 in Mar 2009 we already have seen a -57.7% decline in just 17 months or 1.4 years, thus an duration significantly below average.

Regards,

Rodryk