15-May

One way to approach oil by Grant C

With Europe’s woes and the dollars fluctuations, the price of oil is getting tossed about like a toy in a dog’s mouth. Since as Spikers we don’t pick commodities, I thought I would share my”oil trade” plan in case others are interested. My tools of choice are the ProShares oil-price-based 2x ETFs, UCO for long the price of oil and SCO for short the price of oil. Both trade in size, are liquid, and offer excellent short-term trades. My take is that the price of oil is range-bound, roughly trapped from around $68-70 to $80-82 dollars per barrel. It takes several weeks to claw to the the top of the range, only to suffer violent and sudden declines to the bottom. I anticipate this behavior to be long-term, offering a rich, though probably boring, trading environment. After last week’s European panic, oil plunged to the low end of the range, and I’m looking to buy on a spike below UCO 10–maybe in the 9.60-9.70 range. If we find support, I intend to trade UCO from the long side on a short-term basis as we grind higher. UCO and SCO can have extended ranges, so quantities will be small.

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