11-Jun

Revisiting Old Friends by Grant C

Old friends are special–we have history, and a depth of shared experiences that enriches the relationship. While its true with humans, I’m referring to agricultural were I spent so many hot, back breaking days of my youth harvesting California’s fruits and vegetables. I’m also referring to the agricultural sector of the stock market where I’ve traded the stocks–CAG, ADM, POT, etc. for several years. The stocks reflect the industry– slow grinders responding to the demand/supply patterns. Now, after a huge bull run from 07-08 and a subsequent crash that left the sector in tatters, the stocks are starting to show life again. Take a look at POT–similar to other ag chem stocks–huge run in 07, subsequent crash, and a year plus of sideways base building. Notice the elongated L, Alex’s Fallen Angel pattern. Notice how FI on the weekly chart is edging up from a shallow position–generally a sign that the institutions are accumulating stock. All things considered, POT should eventually see 175 again. We’re far too overbought on the dailies for new buys, but put POT and the rest on your watch list and pay attention when price on the dailies get oversold. The stocks in this group aren’t flashy, but they tend to trade consectively like the oil stocks used to, so you can rotate from one to the other, selling those that are temporarily overbought, and buying those that are temporarily oversold.

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