During the past week the S&P500 lost support of its EMA 21. We got a weak Spike Bounce signal on Tuesday (see dashed vertical W line below), followed by a V2 trigger on Wednesday, and closed the abbreviated week below the low of the V2 trigger bar and the -1 ATR. The Impulse is red on the weekly and daily bars.

The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).   [ Please follow these links: original and update explanations how FGIC works. ]

FGIC fell from the lower edge of its neutral zone at –2 (a frequent congestion zone), losing 4 points on the last trading day of the week and closing at –6.  The bullish scenario described last week (a pullback to the -1 ATR with a V1 or V2 trigger and FGIC holding levels) was therefore invalidated, making the retest of the March lows mentioned by Kerry, more likely.

Have a safe trading week,

Gianluca L.