13-May

Google word search confirms Spike signals at major bottoms

[ This is the second post by our Member Nijay S on this topic. His first was here: https://www.spiketrade.com/members/topic-day/?id=6519. Nijay tells us that more is to come – AE ]

SpikeTrade Member Nijay S writes:“I charted the frequency index for the words “bear market” in Google’s database from 2010 to 2022. I plan to keep researching this area and will be happy to post my findings through the blog.

This chart is based on end of the month frequency data which lags quite a bit.  I should be able to recompile it as weekly like you do for weekly NH-NL.  I'm not sure what we'll see, but worth a try.  I also want to find out if there is some word associations near market tops.
I found on the same site that I can run a word use frequency against an archive from Time magazine which spans from 1923-2006.  A cursory review leads me to think I might find similar patterns.  At least I have found some interesting article excerpts from previous bear markets in there so far – please see below.

Time, 2001 bottom:

“The sound of revelation is everywhere: in living rooms where investment clubs meet, the ones that still bother to meet, anyway; on the cell phones of the flat-busted, way-cool crowd, which stopped day trading months ago; and in the hallways of mutual-fund companies where hotshots are trying to make sense of something they were never programmed to comprehend. So this is a bear market, they sigh.”

Time, 1970 bottom:

“…after another large drop, the average was down to 63, its lowest since 1962. Brokers and investors, who had watched stock values drop $280 billion in the long bear market, expressed their total gloom in bitter jokes. Sample from a broker in Portland, Ore.: " I sleep like a baby. I wake up every hour and cry. "

7 Comments

  • James M.
    Posted May 13, 2022 1:44 pm 0Likes

    This is really interesting. Thank you for sharing! I wonder where this research will take you.

  • Mark D.
    Posted May 15, 2022 11:20 am 0Likes

    Interesting – thx for sharing. I had heard a long time ago, that the sale of large motorhomes was inverse to the market direction… i.e. the larger the sales and inventories of class A motorhomes always peaks before a market drawdown. Hahaha, I sorta felt like NFT’s were the new thing marking a top. Same concept, as both could be because of too much $$ out there and more people spend it on silly things 🙂

  • Nijay S.
    Posted May 15, 2022 11:26 am 0Likes

    James, thanks for your comment. I’m also not sure where it will lead yet. Right now, it’s just that… interesting and a confirmation of things we already know. As a preview of future posts, the weekly view of the data looks quite similar to the VIX, and if I plot [Frequency of “bull market”] minus [Frequeny of “bear market”] it seems to oscillate around the zero line and “may” show some indications of market tops. This is a work in progress and I most welcome ideas anyone may around this subject.

  • Alexander E.
    Posted May 15, 2022 11:58 am 0Likes

    Mark – NFT’s you say? How about this – an article today about a guy with an organic egg farm who was short on cash and solved his problem by selling his chickens as NFTs. Chickens!!

    https://www.dv.ee/novosti/2022/05/15/jestonskaja-firma-razvodit-kriptokuric-vladelec-kompanii-nazyvaet-ee-kolhoz-20?utm_campaign=dv%2Buudiskiri%2B15%2B05&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sendsmaily

  • Igor D.
    Posted May 16, 2022 2:30 pm 0Likes

    Very interesting research Nijay! Looking forward to new posts from you

  • Mark D.
    Posted May 17, 2022 8:44 am 0Likes

    Alex, interesting article! thx for sharing! at least he is offering a % of the business and ability to vote, rather than only selling NFT’s for your “investment” 🙂 seems like a smart guy taking advantage of a very crazy (IMHO) thing !

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