23-May

FGIC in panic mode

The oversold condition continues: S&P traced a new low, the Spike signal was confirmed by closing Friday above -4000, the next SB signal is likely to be rated strong.

FGIC fell further to -11, the level last reached at the end of the pandemic selloff.  Next week, the triggering of an SB signal accompanied by the rise of FGIC will hopefully join the ongoing Spike signal.

The Composite Momentum (CM) is an indicator created by Francesco Caruso, you can find the details along with the formula for some trading platforms here (in Italian, but your browser will translate it easily). 

The chart shows the quarterly S&P500 index since 1960.  The changes that have occurred in over 60 years, in both the real and the financial world, are more than can be counted, but the cyclical pattern of this indicator has never changed.  On the right side of the chart, notice how the CM has just begun to fall.  It is still above the 50 level: in the past, this indicator has never found support before approaching the zero level.

Have a safe trading week,

Gianluca L.

 

3 Comments

  • Michael V.
    Posted May 23, 2022 10:17 pm 0Likes

    Thank you for this interesting post. Can you tell me how to plot the FGCI on a chart that I can check daily? I use stockcharts.com and TradingView. Thank you!

  • Gianluca L.
    Posted May 24, 2022 5:03 am 0Likes

    Michael, I can’t help you, I use Tradestation and don’t know those software.

  • Michael H.
    Posted May 24, 2022 9:49 am 0Likes

    Michael,
    I also use StockCharts and TV. I know SC. allows you to record non-equity indicators such as the CNN fear-greed index. I have never used that feature but the support team or SC community can help. Mike

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