The strong support level mentioned last week, the line in the sand mentioned several times by Alex and Kerry, was broken down on Friday with the S&P closing below all supports: SMA 200 (not shown), the 1.5 ATR from the lows and, fractionally, the – 1 ATR. Last Friday’s 1HL setup was also invalidated.

The Strong Spike Bounce that triggered on Monday vastly exceeded its target, but the price rally was not accompanied by a rise of FGIC.

Last Monday the S&P500 entered correction territory having lost more than 10% from its highs but market sentiment, as measured by the FGIC, did not deteriorate to the same extent.

S&P has accelerated downward in this last abbreviated trading week, but market sentiment deteriorated to a lesser degree.

The S&P formed a new V1 trigger on Friday after bouncing off support near the midpoint of Monday’s reaction bar (highlighted by Kerry). It closed above –1ATR, and Spike Bounce signal is back in a standby mode. The bull is selling its skin dearly.

The markets are at a moment of great indecision: on Thursday and Friday the S&P500 closed slightly below its value zone but found support at -1 ATR. The NH-NL has been showing clear bearish divergences for quite some time, the last strong Spike Bounce (SB) signal has overshot its target and has been extinguished by increasing monthly new lows to be soon replaced by a new weak signal last Friday. However, the market sentiment seems to tell a different story.

On Friday the S&P500 closed at +1 ATR, a level that as Kerry taught us needs to be reached and maintained in a bullish environment.

December saw three Spike Bounce (SB) signals, two strong, one weak, while FGIC continued its decline, closing last week still in the negative zone (-6).

Despite two Spike Bounce (SB) signals in just a few days, FGIC remains in its negative zone, and declining.

The S&P had a powerful rise during this week, following the latest strong Spike Bounce (SB) signal – but FGIC has not yet confirmed that signal, remaining flat and negative.