It remains in the positive zone at +6 and extends its bearish divergence.

For the past 45 days FGIC has remained stuck at the lower margin of the extreme greed readings (+8). During this time S&P500 has gained more than 2.5%, extending a bearish divergence.

Since daily FGIC reached its latest top at +11 in mid-December, S&P500 has gained an additional 7%, while FGIC is now at the lower end of its extreme greed zone.

FGCI is back, once again, in greed readings. We are 268 days away from the extreme fear readings in May 2020. Reviewing the five years of data I collected, the longest period of fearlessness was in 2016-2017 when FGIC spent 290 days above fear readings. Comparing the two periods we see that in 2017 the price was steadily rising with high directionality and low volatility. In the past year, to the contrary, prices have been rising with much higher volatility. In both periods, the pullbacks of FGIC indicated the resilience of the market.

Thursday’s weak Spike Bounce signal was triggered with FGIC in the positive zone (+4). Following the selloff on the last three days of the week, FGIC sank into neutral zone at +2.

There is no change this week, as FGIC remains at the lower edge of the extreme greed readings (+8) for the eleventh consecutive day. There is no new message from FGIC. Today I’d like to share with you my latest research project: a study of the relationship between FGIC and Spike signals.

The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).

The bars on the chart are colored red when FGIC is -8 or lower (Extreme Fear) and green when FGIC is +8 or higher (Extreme Greed).