30-Jun

Fish Out of Water

[ Anthony S is a SpikeTrader from the United Kingdom. His work keeps earning him multiple performance bonuses, and he is on track to winning our Bank Robbery Award. Here he shares his market views ]I am new to trading however I am starting to get some reasonable results. I have been very negative on these markets for some time and today I wake up in sunny England to find that my system is confronting me with lots of buy signals and it makes me feel nervous.I have had my trading transformed by candlestick charting and David Weis. I have tried to keep things simple and have limited myself to a few large SP500 companies about 15 in all, and of those I trade no more than 6. I am trying to follow Alex’s recommendations to keep things simple while I learn my trade.It looks as though the market will trade down this morning about 1-2 % which could push down many of the companies I look at, below some strong resistance levels and they could keep falling although the signals they have been giving out over the past 2 weeks leads me to think that they will just pop back up again.I am a big fan of weekly charts, if you prefer daily you will have to look at these companies yourself on your timeframe.AET$28.00 is a strong support and resistance going back some time. The shares stand at 28.04 so how much will they go below this resistance? Then buy as they bounce back up to 30.00 then 34.00WAGThis is not such a major sell as it needs to get nearer to the 26.00 support. However there has been a major sell off over the past 3 weeks and this has sent the shares below the previous resistance of 29.00, which is where they could spring back to.AEEThese shares don’t move around wildly. However they are below the 25.00 support at 24.45. at this level they are a possible spring up to 27.00There is also a descending triangle since January.EMNThe 57.00 support resistance goes back a long way. The only downside is that over that last two years 57.00 is quite high.You can also look at GD and ANF as other examples. All this leads me to conclude that this downtrend may not have much more to go.Good tradingAnthony S

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5-Jun

Next Week … by Carlos A from Barcelona

I wanted to share my view of the markets with you based on the trading I have done these past days. I went long on Mednesday on ADSK, CYTX, DELL and HOLX. Wednesday I finished up in all 4 stocks. Thursday was a wonderful day with all four going up. However, Friday was a very different story. All of them went down and ADSK even touched the stop.I decided to exit the remaining of the positions with very modest gains. However, trying to go up and go down in such a heavy way doesn’t look good at all. In addition, the euro had all the technicals to rally (you even mentioned this in a spiketrade comment) but finished braking the 1.20 support, which is a major one.My humble opinion is we are going to see big losses next week.

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25-May

A Turn Is Coming?

[ an email from Kim, a SpikeTrade Member in Wisconsin ]The aftermath of the British Petroleum oil spill has made me feel very sad and very ill for some days.The effects are devastating to wildlife, sea life, fishermen, and general morale — given the lack of preparedness, apparent incompetence, and apparent lack of leadership in dealing with the crisis promptly and effectively. Frankly, I think the North-South Korean submarine trouble is being played up as a distraction to this massive environmental disaster.But what I wanted to say as regards the stocks markets is that, if they get that thing capped tomorrow, there may be a substantial rally. If I had any short positions myself, I would at least temporarily close them prior to developments in capping the oil leak Wednesday or whenever it happens. You may make more money if they fail, and we might then have a super-crash with everything else going on: but the current co-operation between the U.S. and China is affecting some China related stocks in a mildly positive fashion, and if this dove-tails with a success in capping that oil spill, I would think it would be quite positive.Just wanted to say, beware irrational exuberance when the oil leak is stopped!All the other problems will still be there, but this situation now is just intolerable. I have to confess, when I saw on TV the administration having music day at the White House on Saturday, our President and his wife and the Vice-President watching “Stevie Wonder” and others perform — when nothing effective had yet been done to stop the oil spill — it did call to mind Nero fiddling while Rome burned, as the old myth went. I know they had the very best intentions and it was planned long ago and couldn’t be changed, but it just seemed inappropriate considering the grave situation… Well, we know I’m no politician!Kim B

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13-Apr

OTE as a Potential Long – by David C

OTE is a Greek communications company with a market cap of $6 billion. OTE was one of Stephen M’s alternate selections this week. I review each Spikers’ weekly selection and alternates as well as several Spike members picks. I was intrigued with OTE immediately. See the attached weekly chart. OTE is in a very extended trading range. Price is right at support on the Weekly chart. Note the huge volume over the past several weeks. This is a definite change in character. Lots of volume with very little price change. My first thoughts are that institutions and professionals are holding the bag wide open for scared longs. The Greek crisis may be the right external event to transfer stock from the weak to the strong. The second chart is the one that drew me in, the one box P&F.

I have “boxed” the huge trading range. If this is accumulation, both the one point P&F and the three point P&F (not shown) is calling for an upmove to approximately $20 per share. IF this range represents accumulation that is. It could be just a trading range with price in relative equilibrium.But the recent change in character will be telling. It may be worth the risk with a stop around $5.68.Dave C.

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17-Mar

Who’s been eating my porridge? – by Tony S. (from the UK)

Dear SpikeTraders,I am new to trading and have been struggling to find my strategy and get my admin in order. So I thought I would stop trading even in the very small amounts I am doing. I have been struggling with the MACD and how to work it. I decided that I should go back to the very basics and look at candlestick charts and found a book called Intro to Candlestick Charts by Clive Lambert. This is very basic but I have found it great. I have found that using black and white candles suites me better than colours that I find distracting.I love the psychology of the candlestick charts and this has given me an insight into what is happening in the market and now hanging man and shooting stars are a great way of breaking down charts. Once I have understood this I intend to learn a bit About MACD and add this to my analysis.I am also operating from England and some of the smaller companies are not available for me to trade. I am not unpleased with this as it will force me to look at a small number of companies for a start. Taking my inexperience into account I thought this might be of interest to some of you.3 companies have come onto my radar almost all together as shorts Boeing, Apple and Dendreon and in that order.Hanging men are formed in an up market. The first is at the end of an uptrend and did signal the start of a downtrend the middle 3 had mixed results but I say they are in a downtrend and therefore not hanging men. Now we look to today and why I am so excited about this short. We have a triple top and 2 hanging men. The Bears are resisting any move higher and the bears are also trying to move the market lower and failing. However the bears are coming alive and any day now we could move lower.The next example is Apple. There are not so many signals here but again the bears are waking up the hanging man is at the top of a fast uptrend and this is the first move the bears have made. I will need more bear signals before I move but this is in my radar.The final company is Dendreon. This is very similar to Boeing with a triple or quad top showing the bears are digging their heals in and stopping the market going higher. After that the bears are testing the market with examples of both the Rickshaw and Hanging man. These have both failed so far.I may be seeing something that does not materialize but this market just requires more volume to confirm the down signals and I am going to re-enter this market as a short.

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