[ this was sent by Rick K – a long-time SpikeTrade member.
This email came in from a friend – a very sharp professional trader who trades strictly his own account from the Isle of Man – a British dependency located between England and Ireland.
Daniel S writes from Brazil: “Take a look at these charts of SPY
When Anna C, a long-term SpikeTrade Member wrote to us that she was going to have a baby, we encouraged to stay in the group and to contribute picks whenever she felt like it.
This Weekly chart of the US Dollar shows that it hit its long term support at 74.50 nine weeks ago, which should enable the Dollar to gain traction for the upside … it did.Note the weekly support level at 77.86 with the Dollar now above that level. The Dollar continues to gain strength, which should take it up to the 80 – 82 level where it will meet its first important resistance. Let us continue to monitor …Daniel SBrazil
[This comes from a Member in Sao Paulo, Brazil – Alex]Beyond
[this just in from a SpikeTrade Member in Australia – Alex]There has been much talk over the last few months about a pullback on the S&P. It might be wise to keep one eye on the Baltic dry Index. Should it break the trend line; the pullback might become a fall back.Baltic IndexThe Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a daily average of prices to ship raw materials. It represents the cost paid by an end customer to have a shipping company transport raw materials across seas on the Baltic Exchange, the global marketplace for brokering shipping contracts. The BDI acts as a leading economic indicator.More information can be found at: wiki
Notice the BDI bottomed several months ahead of the stock market (march 2009 bottom), and then picked up strength. At the time of writing the BDI was at 3005, with support at 2700. Should support not hold, then all bets are off in the equity markets.Roger
Roger writes: I’ve done a little analysis on Gold.Gold has just touched on Fibonacci 76% retracement level. Could this be the current bottom in Gold?Looking back to June 2006, there was a blow-off similar to what we are seeing.Price rose from $540 to $725 in a very short period of time, only to retrace 100% of its previous gains. In doing so, it punched through the 200-day moving average. The 200 MA is currently around $1026. A punch-through could hit $1000.Long at $1030 wouldn’t be all bad.Have a Merry ChristmasRoger
2010 TRADING PLANNow is the
[ Jock is a professional trader and a SpikeTrade Member – Alex ]Last night PBS Newshour ran ITN’s excellent intro to rare earths. Nobody partying in Copenhagen seems to realize that “green technologies” greatly stimulate environmentally-ugly production of rare earths in China. Prius’es and wind turbines use huge amounts of rare earths.Also, Molycorp’s CEO (Goldman-Sachs-led group which bought Chevron’s Mountain Pass rare earth mine- the US’s ONLY past producing mine) “talks his book” about the importance of getting non-Chinese sources producing.China has 95% of the world market (having no internal “environmentalists” to contend with) and regularly cuts price to forestall competing exploration and production.http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/july-dec09/chi…JockPS: A couple of years ago, I was lucky to get to know a sharp resource guy who has spent 4 years ONLY studying rare earths. He is now one of the world’s leading experts, having traveled to China (and Mongolia) many times, and attended conferences all over the world on the subject.He says he has yet to crack the code on rare earths as an investment. There was good speculation a couple of months ago, but the problem with the area is that most don’t know the true mix of light and heavy RE’s in a given deposit. (there are 16 RE’s) AND, the demand for each particular element is a function of where (fast-moving) technology is heading. Demand for a given element shoots up, then dies when a new technology replaces an old one.Then there is the tendency of the Chinese to cut prices whenever a competitor looks likely to develop a competing deposit or begin processing in competition with them. I’m told the lithium exploration plays are a scam.In Canada, the better “juniors” are CA:AVL, CA:GWG and CA:QUC on bigcharts.com – but the game, for the present, is merely speculation, as you can see from the runup a couple of months ago. There’s AU: LYC in Australia too. LYC is the ONLY one with enough volume to trade, but is only economical to buy through Interactive Brokers.Molycorp, referenced above, is still private. Their IPO will be a heavily promoted affair.